The invisible costs of oil
Forget today's prices at the pump. We'll be paying for this for a while.
Hey there. It’s me, Douglas, bringing back The Invisible Costs series here on The Joint Account. For those unfamiliar, Heather and I search for those sneaky hidden expenses and explain how they show up in your everyday lives. We’ve previously covered childcare, college, travel, and more. This time, we’re covering a hot topic of conversation: oil.
Most people watch the pump to get a sense of where the price of oil might be. After all, that’s what we see on the news: images of gas stations paired with the same conversation over and over. I understand why you’d think this is the only place the price of oil will cost you, but it’s truly a distraction from the bigger picture playing out all around us.
So far this year, crude oil went from just under $70 per barrel before the Iran War to more than $120 at its peak. As I write this, it’s back near $70…like the whole thing never happened.
But just because oil came back down doesn’t mean the costs passed onto us came down with it. Let’s go beyond the headlines and see what’s really going on.
General inflation. An oil shock is an inflation shock. More expensive crude oil means pricier everything, because oil grows your food, runs factories, and moves it all. The latest report had inflation at 4.2 percent, a three-year high, with energy driving over 60 percent of the monthly jump. Gas is up 40 percent on the year while heating oil is up 59 percent. The invisible part is what this does to your savings. Inflation shrinks the value of your dollar. Your 401(k), the kids’ 529s, and your emergency fund—all of it, through no fault of your own.
Borrowing. Oil-driven inflation keeps interest rates higher for longer. When inflation runs hot, the Fed has no room to cut; so mortgages, car loans, credit cards, and HELOCs all stay expensive. Central banks abroad have already paused some planned rate cuts and raised their inflation forecasts. So, even the loans you take to buy a car or renovate a home will cost more.
Renovations. If you’re building or remodeling, oil is baked into your bid before the demolition even begins. Roofing shingles, PVC pipe, vinyl siding, insulation, paint, adhesives are all petroleum products, and diesel moves every one of them to your driveway. Construction input prices climbed at a 12.6 percent annualized rate in early 2026, per the Associated Builders and Contractors, and that was before the oil spike fully hit.
Homeowners insurance. Your premiums can climb even in years you don’t file a claim, because insurers base their prices off what it costs to repair and rebuild, and those costs ride on the same petroleum-based materials and diesel freight we just talked about. When materials get pricier, insurance claim payouts get pricier, too. So, your premiums may go up to accommodate those anticipated losses. And it’s already happening: 71 percent of homeowners say their insurance has gone up in recent years, with 42 percent saying it’s gone up “a lot,” citing repair and rebuild costs as the second-most-common reason. Not sure we’ll ever see those premium prices come back down, either.
Service charges. These might be physically on your invoices, but I consider them hidden, because I doubt you’re really looking at them. Here’s some examples: your landscaper tacks on a fuel surcharge. So does the shipping company dropping boxes on your porch. In fact, UPS bases its ground surcharge on diesel prices and adjusts it weekly. And these surcharges are sticky by design. When fuel falls, minimum thresholds keep the surcharge propped up, which means the carriers have raised the floor so that even if they got fuel cheaper, you’d keep paying more.
Groceries. Oil is in your food before the delivery truck pulls up to the supermarket. It takes petroleum-based fertilizer to grow it and diesel to harvest and haul it, so a barrel of oil touches your produce twice before you ever bag it. Additionally, fertilizer prices are projected to jump 31 percent in 2026, driven by a 60 percent spike in urea (a synthetic, highly concentrated nitrogen source used to promote rapid, lush plant growth). Over 30 percent of the world’s urea ships out of the Gulf, right through the Strait of Hormuz.
Other stuff you’d never guess. Did you know that oil isn’t just fuel…it’s also a raw ingredient? That cologne you love is petroleum derived. Often, so is your skincare, lotion, and lip balm. Even your favorite athleisure might use polyester and spandex, which you guessed it…is made from oil. A lot of what’s in your medicine cabinet also starts out as a barrel of oil. Petrochemicals already eat up about 12 percent of global oil demand. When it comes to oil, you’re wearing it, washing with it, and probably spraying it on before heading out for date night. Yeah, I know. Weird.
As with all our Invisible Costs investigations, this shows how the major forces shaping your financial life often arrive without labels or price tags. They hide in statements, receipts, invoices, and premiums. They climb with the headlines and stay there long after the news moves onto the next topic.
You can’t control the price of a barrel of oil any more than I can. But when you see it for what it is, you can plan more, react less, and have more informed opinions about the policies that impact us all, at the pump and everywhere else.
Where have you seen the cost of oil sneak up on you? Have any ideas for future installments of The Invisible Costs series? Let us know.
The Wedding is upon us. Strong rumors insist that this weekend, on the eve of the 250th anniversary of America, Miss Americana will marry the captain of the football team at Madison Square Garden on July 3rd. I could probably write eight dissertations about Taylor and Travis, but tbh, I don’t care. She deserves a normal(ish) dude who can pick things up and put them down for her instead of a troubled artist manchild who will never accept her success. I love their love and just want them to be happy. Mazel tov, you two. -Heather
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The content shared in The Joint Account does not constitute financial, legal, or any other professional advice. Readers should consult with their respective professionals for specific advice tailored to their situation. The information contained in this post is general in nature and for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as investment advice or as a recommendation of any particular strategy or investment product. This post is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any specific security. Bone Fide Wealth cannot guarantee the accuracy of information from third parties.